The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the "Settlement Source").
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the parties that shall make up the first governing coalition of Germany subsequent to the next federal election.
A party shall be considered to be part of a governing coalition if a majority of its representatives in the Bundestag cast a vote in favor of the election of the next Chancellor of Germany subsequent to the next federal election.
For purposes of this market, any contract that references the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) shall also be considered to reference the Christian Social Union in Bavaria.
Supplementary Comment(s)
Created On: 09/02/2021 12:48 PM (ET)
In response to trader inquiry: The contract that resolves to Yes shall list all of the parties that make up the coalition, and only those parties.For example, if a contract lists only two parties and the coalition includes more than just those two, that contract will resolve as No.Potential coalitions may be added to this market as needed.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S.Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract.Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances.
The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S.president.Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.
Which political party will win the 2024 presidential election in the USA?
If there is any doubt as to the winner, it will be settled based on who is officially inaugurated and sworn in as president, whenever that takes place. Any political party other than the Democrats or Republicans will be considered as "third party." In the unlikely event there is no winner, bet will resolve for third party.
Will Joe Biden complete atleast 1 term as US President. For this market to resolve in "Yes" Biden must be inauguarated as US President in January 2021 and remain US President until the end of the term in January 2025. All other outcomes end in "No"
This market is meant to predict the total number of deaths atributed to COVID in the US from the beginning of January 1st 2022 until the end of December 31st 2022. The website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us will be used to measure final results. If this site is unavailabe the CDC will be used as the source.
Kamala Harris is currently Vice President of the United States. This bet is weather she will serve her full term or no longer be Vice President using the date of November 1st 2024 as a deadline. Reguardless of reason she leaves position this market resolves No if she is not VP on the stated date.
Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential Election? This market resolves yes if the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential Election held in Novemeber 2024. It will resolve No if the Democrats do not win the Election.
